Architect or Sorcerer’s Apprentice?

Now, I want to tackle one pet peeve of mine, which may well be making piles of cash evaporate from your earnings if you have any IT capability present in your business.

I do come across a lot of businesses and organizations and one thing strikes me at times: how on Earth is it possible to have so many people keeping themselves busy on matters that they do not have a clue about? And not  contributing any progress? Ivory towers, wishful thinking, planning forever instead of executing, all of these make me wish for a huge broom to clean the floor!

And it is nowhere as key as when I come across so-called IT Architects.

True IT-Architects are a fine bunch. But sorting the cream from the  crop is a must do since they have such an important effect on enabling business to thrive through the use of technology.

First of all, let’s look at what makes a great IT Architect:

The IT Architect function is to be placed in the natural evolution in the career of a successful implementer.
Amongst the required skills we find;

  1. Vision: the ability to have a vision of the future and how business and technology can mesh to deliver value.
  2. Knowledge: the understanding of what exists on the marketplace.
  3. Pragmatics: a willingness to practice Occam’s razor principle when it comes to systems.
  4. Ability to synthesize: there are just way too many viewpoints and items to consider. So, the ability to synthesize and focus on the essentials that do matter really making a huge difference.
  5. Ability to delegate work: following on the previous one, the architect who micro manages and isn’t unable to delegate work is doomed to fail. Just because he’ll be swamped in minute details. What the architect brings to the table is vision rooted in reality. He provides a reference frame that is solid enough for other to work on, so that the whole things isn’t sinking.
  6. Resilience to fads: a successful architect is immune to fads. He can see the value of technologies and approaches and will integrate them in his practice. But not herald one way as ‘the true way’. Becoming a zealot is not on his agenda.
  7. Widely read on architectural topics:
    there is more than one form of architecture, be it functional, technical, organizational, human, you name it. A never ending willingness to learn and put in practice for pragmatic results is what drives him.
  8. Willing to take prudent risk: architects aren’t lawyers. Lawyers are paid to avoid risks. But that’s not the way you succeed in the marketplace. Prudent risk is the way to go. Because it will give you that little edge advantage that will make you win. Prudent risks in sequence will make you go a long way. And so thinks the successful architect. Innovation, but not for innovation’s  sake. For pragmatic reasons that deliver value.
  9. Able to look from the telescopic down to the microscopic: this is really key. You need to be able to dream up, see the big  picture, while at the same time having your feet firmly planted in the ground. The devil is in the details. A willingness to listen to the rank and file implementers is recognized as a great feedback mechanism. Of course, feedback is only for information and the architect is able to take on the hard decisions since he has a global view.

Sorcerer’s apprentices usually share a set of characteristics as far as I can tell from my encounters with them:

  1. Freshmen with no historical perspective: these have been some kind of education but really don’t grasp the details. They are “in the moment” when it comes decisions and shoot from the hip when it comes to express an idea. Needless to say, in complex organizations, this is a recipe for disaster. Especially when their opinion is connected in real-time with the ever changing fads of the day they read about on the web one hour ago.
  2. Golden hammer syndrome: they believe that one thing will solve all problems. So, they make everything look like a nail. Even eggs. Needless to say, you need a hammer for nails, but hammers don’t work marvelously well for sawing parts or gluing things together. There is an attitude problem and it’s rooted in insecurity and unwillingness to open horizons.
  3. Castle in the sky attitude: typical of sorcerer’s apprentices with no real-world experience of scale, this castle in the sky attitude leads to over complex architectures, which nobody in their right mind would consider practical. But unaware management will fall into the trap and embark on a long, dark, and costly journey if they buy on these castle in the sky ideas. I’ve seen quite a number of tens of millions of good money evaporate this way. And more often than once mind you. Beware!
  4. Misunderstanding complexity: complexity comes in two flavors: essential and accidental. Essential is related to intrinsic complexity of the problem you are trying to solve, no matter the technology (e.g. quoting prices for complex risks). Accidental complexity is connected to accumulated stupid decisions, accretion of old parts, or technology that is just requiring you to be a rocket scientist to use. And sorcerer’s apprentices do create an awful lot of accidental complexity, making even the easy problems look hard.  This keeps the organization from moving into the future.
  5. Overinflated ego: sorcerer’s apprentices should be well inspired to take a huge dose of humility. Their overinflated ego has the bad side effect of alienating them from the other people, rendering their concepts rejected by the practicioner. Nobody wants to deal with a moron, let alone a moron with an overinflated ego. Even if not a moron, an overinflated ego will make
    you look like one no matter what. This is not to say that a good architect has not a healthy ego. On the contrary, he as one. Just that overinflated egos don’t help and hinder acceptance and forward movement.
  6. Ivory tower mentality: associated with the previous point, the ivory tower mentality has the sorcerer’s apprentices gather together in some department, usually named the “architecture group” whose nobody exactly knows what they do in. There seems to be activity but nothing that influences the field in any meaningful way. It looks like that the sorcerer’s apprentices keep their
    “valuable” knowledge to themselves. Net result? No evangelization of what works and delivers results. And also, money thrown down the drain.
  7. Paper centered instead of executable focus: sorcerer’s apprentices revel in producing realms of papers, charts — the more convoluted the better, and other meaningless artifacts that don’t make sense to the people that would be in need of guidance. What people want from architects is guidance, frames of reference, and a sense of trust that they aren’t going to die a slow death into a bad project. Sorcerer’s apprentices don’t provide for that. On the contrary, they’ll send you down a bad trip just as a twisted experiment. And more often than not, they’ll not even be aware of the fact!

So, are your architects sorcerer’s apprentices? Or which one are you? Once known, where to go from there? A great question indeed. A question that may require harsh decisions to head the ship back into the right  direction instead of risking making it the next little Titanic of your organization.

Until next time, happy hunt!

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Trends of 2011 – Great Video

Check out the trends of 2011.

I do like: wearable tech, toddlers games.

And yes, we’ll see deviance becoming somewhat fashionable. This will just end you in jail if you follow the suggestions.

And after a while (say 5 years), we’ll see the reverse trend coming since the no limit paradigm will only make people more insecure and crazy in their heads. That’s why law was invented. To keep the people somewhat safe and guarantee private property. Two things that deviance can be labeled as being against.

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How to keep the value of your earned assets in 2011?

There are several trends that will have a huge impact on markets in 2011. Most of them will have a damaging effect on cash when such cash is EUR or USD.

Why is it so?

First of all, the US is printing money and buying back debt with it, basically printing out its way out of debt. Through QE and QE2, the US devalued the purchasing power of the dollar. The USD is still the reserve currency of the world, but trusting the US is really not a good idea in my view. So, moving away from the dollar is a winning strategy for 2011.
Next, looking at the Eurozone side of the equation, the approach of no default preferred by it is not helping the Eurozone debt at all. What happens is that perfectly good economies are hurt by periphery countries that succumbed to bubbles. Instead of letting investors take a haircut on such economies, bailouts were the choice taken. And now, the EURO pluges vs the dollar.
All in all, this means that the EUR and the USD are spiraling down towards the ground and run a huge risk of losing a hell of a lot of their purchasing power. Governments have no issue with that since it will reduce the burden of their debt, but at the expense of the standard of living of their populations.
Investors also do not see this very positively since the returns they expected become meaningless since the monetary basis is massively expanded, lowering the true value of their positions.
And a quick look at commodities show us that oil, gold, silver, palm oil, and so on are on a bullish trend in a lot of currencies. When commodities are up in a lot of currencies, this is an important sign: the sign that fiat currencies are worth less than they used to be.

What to do then?

For the beginning of 2011, commodities will be a great hedge against inflation. Even if interest rates are going up to “fight inflation”, the mere fact of printing more money at central banks (Fed or ECB) defies the intent.
Also, taking positions in the forex by being long on the AUS$ will pay off. At least in the first months.
There is also a significant move out of Gold ETFs towards physical bullion. That’s a trend that indicates that there is trouble coming. So, getting some gold or silver bullion is definitely looking like a good idea.

What’s the horizon looking like?

In a word, it will look like very unstable. The financial crisis is not over at all. It just morphed into a sovereign debt problem. The issue is that sovereign debt is never paid off. Corporations that do not pay their debts are going under. Not so with sovereign countries. Their citizens end up broke, but the country stays there. So, investing in assets that do not depend on governments is the best bet in my view.
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Green IT and electrical consumption

This morning, I read “Les TIC vertes” where Alain mentions that switching to IT based solutions for:

  • replacing paper based stuff
  • reducing the need for travel
  • moving to eCommerce

are all nice and good but that they are making the consumption of electricity go up.

And that may not be all that green.

I think that Alain is overlooking a big trend, which is the upcoming “Smart Grid”, where a lot of production will go to individuals. For example, there are new products that use cogeneration, recovery of energy (in washing machines for example), and self-sufficiency.

There is also the trend of devices being powered by the body of the wearer. Kind of the Swatch Kinetic on steroids. Will power the mobile phone, and the mobile phone is becoming the next big wave. The PC is locking you to a given place, whereas the mobile does not. So, this is one less problem.

Also, Alain points out that cloud computing generates a lot of heat, uses a lot of energy. Yeah, sure but there are ways to leverage that. These are the places where improvements will be made because there is a huge financial incentive to turn lost heat into cost reductions. Remember that heat us just unused power blown off in the air. The less you have, the most efficient you are and the more your operating margin grows. Now that’s a language that makes market sense.

For example, I am myself on a project to move all of my IT stuff working on solar power. And use less energy hungry machines. But obviously there are limits to the current technology to make it efficient. And it will not work for everyone.

Mastery of energy has always been what made a civilization thrive. Look at China, they are not going to cut down on energy use. Same for India, Brazil, and the like. We will see more nuclear power going on in the coming years, and that’s a good thing, ecologists notwithstanding.

Expecting reduction of energy consumption where the biggest part of the world’s population wants to access it is nonsense. There will be growth. Insanely large growth. We must change our Western-centric view. The world is so much larger than that.

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